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中国宏观经济分析与预测(英文版论文)

发表时间:2011/11/22 11:31:40


中国宏观经济分析与预测(英文版)

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China’s MacMrcaccoerceoeeoncnomonnimommcic Analylllsis & ForFreorrceascstassitnigng:
2009-2010009-2010009-009-010010------ A Way Out of ChinasMacroeconomicDilemmaOveereeviieiiwUnder the influence of powerful stimulus policies and inventory adjustment cycle, in 2009,China’s macro-economy successfully rode out profound downturn since the third quarter of 2008.
The real economy showed signs of rebound surpassing e*pectations, inflation e*pectations beganto rise, asset prices rapidly increased, and the macro-economy rebounded quickly, but foreigndemand slumped severely. The forecast is that annual GDP growth ratewill attain 8.56%, and CPIgrowth rate will attain -0.7%, with the reduction of the foreign trade surplus reaching 87.4 billionUSD comparedwith 2008.
Atpresent, China’s overallmacro-economy has been enteringthe transitionalperiod from “policy-stimulating rebound stage” to “market-demand rebound stage”. This determines that China’se*pectation-surpassing rebound has specific properties of “policy orientation”, “structuralimbalance”, “dynamic instability”, “lack of interaction among growth factors” and “the volatilityof general direction” as
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