What Determine China’s Inflation

What Determine China’s Inflation?
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Huang Yiping
China Center for Economic Research, Peking University (yhuang@ccer.pku.edu.cn)
Wang *un
China Center for Economic Research, Peking University Hua *iuping
Research Department, China Finance 40 Forum

[Abstract] We e*amine determinants of inflation in China. Analyses of
both year‐on‐year and month‐on‐month growth data confirm e*cess
liquidity, output gap, housing prices and stock prices positively affecting
inflation. Impulse response analyses indicate that most effects occur during
the initial five months and disappear after 10 months. Effects of real
interest rates and e*change rates on inflation are relatively weak. Our
results suggest that output gap is as important as e*cess liquidity in
e*plaining inflation trajectory. The central bank should closely monitor
asset prices given their spill
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